WTIO30 FMEE 180110



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20172018

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  7  (ELIAKIM)



2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 49.4 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/03/23 00 UTC: 43.1 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

ELIAKIM HAS BEEN TRACKED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE OBS FROM SAINTE-MARIE

AND TAMATAVE. AT THIS LOCATION, LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVAILED MOST OF

THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS. AT

00Z, CORRECTED FROM BAROMETRIC TIDE PRESSURE IS NEAR 995 HPA,

SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER HAS PASSED OVER THE CITY. SINCE THE SYSTEM

IS BACK OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINES YESTERDAY EVENING, IT SEEMS THAT

IT MOVES OVER THE SHORELINE ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK. GIVEN THE

ILL-DEFINED CENTER, POSITION CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIR.



THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS THE SAME AS SURFACE PRESSURE OBS DO

NOT SHOW ANY FILL-UP TENDENCY. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION, FORMED JUST

BEFORE 18Z, WRAPPED NOW 0.3AO ON LOG10 SPIRAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART

OF THE CIRCULATION. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE

IS STILL NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY.



NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE GENERAL REASONING . ELIAKIM IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.



THE STRUCTURE OF ELIAKIM HAS BEEN HIGHLY IMPACTED BY LAND

INTERACTION. MOREOVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO

THE SHORE OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE FROM THE STILL

FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS. SUNDAY EVENING

AND THEN MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND,

ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING

BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.



HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE STILL THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM ELIAKIM. THIS HEAVY

RAINFALLS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN

CONJUNCTION WITH THE MONSOON FLOW AND ALONG THE CENTRAL EAST COAST

SOUTH OF THE CENTER.=