WTIO30 FMEE 180620



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20172018

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  7  (ELIAKIM)



2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 49.3 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 330 SE: 410 SW: 0 NW: 0

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/03/22 06 UTC: 38.0 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/03/23 06 UTC: 44.8 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

DESPITE ITS PROGRESSIVE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST, THE CONVECTIVE

SIGNATURE IS STILL VERY DEGRADED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND A DVORAK

ANALYSIS STILL DOES NOT PERMIT A CORRECT REPRESENTATION OF THE

INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. 0322UTC MICROWAVE DATA ALLOW TO SAY THAT

ELIAKIM TRACK OVER SEA, ALTHOUGH TOAMASINA WIND OBSERVATIONS RELATE

TO A NORTHERN ORIENTATION THAT CAN BE RELATED TO COMPLEX EFFECTS OF

INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF AND CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN

PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0543UTC ASCAT SWATH VALID WELL THIS LOCATION

OVER SEA WITH A WIND OF EAST NEAR 20S/49.3E



THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY FOR THE ELAIKIM'S TRACK PREDICTION REMAINS THE

SAME: THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-EASTWARD ALONG THE

WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE

ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.



FOR INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS VERY IMPACTED

BY ITS PASSAGE ON LAND AND ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE COASTS OF

MADAGASCAR. THE CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE IN THE TERM OF WIND SHEAR

AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WEAK INTENSIFICATION

IN FAVOR OF ITS TRACK OVER SEA DURING THIS SUNDAY. SUNDAY EVENING AND

THEN MONDAY,  THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND,

ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING

BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS SOUTHERN TRACK.



HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE STILL ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN A

200KM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER OF ELIAKIM.=