WTXS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150451ZMAR18// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 10.7S 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.5S 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.4S 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.1S 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.4S 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.0S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.9S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 132.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE INFRARED LOOP AND A 151852Z 37GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENISTY IF 35 KNOT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM OF 32 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THEY SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN MAINLAND AUSTRALIA AND THE TIWI ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH TIME THE TRACK DIRECTION BECOMES MORE WESTWARD AS TC 15S MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 36 AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEAL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THESE VARIATIONS IN TRACK LOCATIONS CAUSE EXTENSIVE VARIATIONS IN BOTH ALONG TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150500). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//