WTXS32 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 131.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 131.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.0S 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.9S 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.7S 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.3S 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.1S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.3S 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.2S 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 131.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS IT TRACKED BETWEEN THE ISLANDS NORTH OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL- DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SSW-WARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS ANCHORED WEST-EAST OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND DRAG ALONG THE NORTHERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. BY TAU 72, JUST NORTH OF BROOME, IT WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO). DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, MARCUS WILL STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SIO, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL COMMENCE, AIDED BY ANTICIPATED STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS IN THE AREA. BY TAU 120, TC 15S IS FORECAST TO REACH 100 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION DURING THE NEAR TERM MAY AFFECT ITS STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//