WTXS32 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.5S 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.3S 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.8S 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.4S 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.8S 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.7S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.4S 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 131.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 63 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULAR CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND SKIRTING THE COASTLINE. A 161839Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION SITUATED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CREATING A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOTABLE DIFFLUENCE. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR THE COAST LINE AROUND 31 CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30 CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT WHICH WILL BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. INITIALLY TC 15S WILL TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. BEYOND TAU 48 TC 15S WILL TRACK OVER OPEN WATER, AND WITH IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSE GROUPING OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SO CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. DESPITE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//