WTXS32 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.0S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.3S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.3S 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.7S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.7S 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 28.9S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED 10 NM EYE THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) HEDGED LOWER DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD FILLING IN THE EYE OBSERVED AROUND 191800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30 TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. FROM TAU 24 TO 48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT BEGINS TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//