WTXS32 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 116.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 116.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.7S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.1S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.8S 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.2S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.6S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.5S 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 27.7S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 116.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A RE-DEVELOPING EYE EVIDENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. A 200655Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OCCURRING WITH AN OUTER EYEWALL AND MOAT SURROUNDING A VERY SMALL INNER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS), ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND HAD OCCURRED PRIOR TO THIS TIME AS IS TYPICAL WITH ERC. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS IT RECURVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ETT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//