WTXS32 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 113.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.8S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.6S 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.9S 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.9S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.2S 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 26.2S 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 28.0S 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 113.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A PINHOLE EYE (9 NM IN DIAMETER) THAT HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND CLEARING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH ALL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS TC 15S DEFLECTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OHC. AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS POLEWARD INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE VWS. THESE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING STRONG EVIDENCE OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//