WTXS32 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 112.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.0S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.0S 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.7S 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.7S 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.7S 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.0S 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 30.0S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 111.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE (8 NM IN DIAMETER) THAT CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND CLEARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 202317Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ENCIRCLING THE ENTIRE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC MARCUS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS TC 15S ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OHC. AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE VWS. THESE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO TC 15S DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//