WTXS32 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 108.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 108.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.7S 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.6S 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.9S 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.6S 106.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 27.9S 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 31.6S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 108.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 17 NM EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THIS SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SUGGESTING TC 15S WILL NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER. TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INTO COOLER WATERS. INITIALLY SSTS DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY, HOWEVER BEYOND TAU 36 THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY INTO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 15S WILL APPROACH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY INCREASING. DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 15S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//