WTXS32 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 106.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 106.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.1S 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.8S 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.5S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 28.5S 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 33.0S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 106.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A PREVIOUSLY OBSERVABLE EYE FEATURE NOW COMPLETELY CLOUD FILLED. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL VIRTUALLY INDISTINGUISHABLE IN AN 221507Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND AN OUTER RING OF CONVECTION NEARLY CLOSED OFF WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN MOST EDGE SHOWING A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 6.0 TO T6.5 (127 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND INTO COOLER WATERS TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TC 15S APPROACHES THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. DEGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 15S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//