WTXS32 PGTW 232100 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 106.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 106.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.3S 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 28.7S 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 30.8S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 106.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE FEATURE, BUT A 231445Z AMSU- B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LEADING TO PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN WHAT THE IR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9 (59 KNOTS). TC 15S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION MENTIONED IN REMARKS SECTION.//