WTPS31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211821ZMAR2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 135.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 135.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.4S 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 11.1S 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.4S 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.0S 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.5S 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.9S 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.0S 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 135.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CAUSING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ADRM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29- 30C). TC 16P IS BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS AT TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST TRACK BUT SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUE A SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 211830).//