WTPS31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 10.7S 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.0S 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.5S 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.0S 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.3S 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.9S 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.8S 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 136.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221901Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE CORRESPONDING 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) BASED ON THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A 221557Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STARK IMPROVEMENT IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WHICH WILL SHIFT THE TRACK INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN WATER LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//