WTPS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 10.9S 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 12.4S 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.0S 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.4S 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.6S 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 17.6S 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.4S 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 137.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP BANDING CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRUGGLING TO FORM AN EYE. A 222116Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ADRM. NEARBY SHIP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE WESSEL INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN MSLP TO 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WILL SHIFT THE TRACK INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN WATER AND UNHINDERED BY LAND A BIT LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//