WTPS31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 138.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 138.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.1S 139.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.6S 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.0S 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.1S 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.0S 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.5S 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.3S 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 138.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 230607Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16S HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYEWALL EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. SLOW FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH ACCELERATION WESTWARD LIKELY THEREAFTER. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS TC 16S PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 AS IT MOVES INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRACK SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH LANDFALL AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//