WTPS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 139.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.2S 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.8S 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.5S 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.2S 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.9S 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 17.7S 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 18.7S 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 139.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC NORA HAS CEASED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, WITH THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A 231715 SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTING A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WHERE THE IR WOULD SUGGEST THE LLCC WOULD BE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GOVE, AUSTRALIA RADAR SITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM CIMSS OF T5.0. TC 16P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW GUINEA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, INTENSITY HAS PLATEAUED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AROUND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 16P WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 24, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND MODERATE SUPPORTING UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER- LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 24, BUT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVEMENT AROUND TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE WEST, THE UNCERTAINTY BEING IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF MOTION. HOWEVER, THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE CORAL SEA BY TAU 72. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//