WTPS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 13.9S 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.0S 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 15.8S 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.4S 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 17.0S 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 17.8S 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.2S 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC NORA WEAKENED THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK, RAGGED EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MSI, AND RADAR FIX DATA FROM THE WEIPA RADAR SITE. A 232207Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AT THAT TIME TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WITH THE EYEWALL BEING OPEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS FOR THIS WARNING, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF T4.8 (84 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO AN INCREASING TREND EVIDENT AT THE TIME OF THE FIX. TC 16P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW GUINEA, THOUGH THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FLATTER THAN ORIGINAL FORECAST, WITH A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT THROUGH THE 00Z HOUR. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTENSITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT IS ON AN INCREASING TREND. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, TC NORA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL COL AREA BETWEEN THE NER, A DEVELOPING STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE EQUATORWARD END OF A MID-LATITUDE TROF TO THE SOUTH, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 16P WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WHILE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, BY THE 00Z HOUR, INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING WERE ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT, AND SO A SHORT PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 12, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12 AND THROUGH TAU 36 SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 36, AS LAND INTERACTION AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINE, TC 16P WILL EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN, WITH THREE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA, WHILE THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST AND NORTH, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//