WTPS31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.6S 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.1S 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.3S 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.4S 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO EXTENSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS ABOVE AREA OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND TERRAIN INHIBITED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER LAND. TC NORA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHERLY AS A STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 16P WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 24. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.//