WTPS32 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011021ZAPR18// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 148.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 148.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.0S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.5S 148.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.9S 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 18.2S 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.5S 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 18.6S 152.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.5S 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 148.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 17P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 011030). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTH. A 012036Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER, AND IN THE TRAILING BAND TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 012248Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 KT WIND BARBS OVER 50NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF STATION RECORDING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS FOR 4 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE AGREES WITH THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION DESPITE MODERATE 15-20 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17P MADE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS) IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF 17P HAD BEEN SUBTROPICAL ON 27 MAR, IT RE-ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, GROWING INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM CORE, IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGESTS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT 36 HOURS. IN THE NEAR TERM, GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE STORM MOTION, WITH HWRF AND GFS BEING WESTERN OUTLIERS. ECMWF, NAVGEM, AND AFUM INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER A POSSIBLE LOOP. IN THE LONG TERM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRIFURCATED, WITH HWRF AND GFS MOVING TC 17P CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD AUSTRALIA, COAMPS AND NAVGEM TRACKING TC 17P SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD, AND ECMWF AND THE UKMET MODELS SHOWING EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AS A RESULT, MULTIPLE DISSIPATION SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//