WTPS32 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 148.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 148.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.2S 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 17.7S 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.0S 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 18.3S 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.5S 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 18.4S 153.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.0S 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 148.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 17P IS EXPERIENCING WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT IS GENERALLY TRACKING AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//