WTPS32 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 148.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 148.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.6S 149.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.0S 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 18.3S 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 18.6S 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.7S 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 18.7S 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 18.4S 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 148.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 021118Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS AND HEDGED BELOW FLINDERS REEF OBSERVATIONS REPORTING UP TO 48 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO PERSIST ALONG WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 17P IS EXPERIENCING WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT IS GENERALLY TRACKING AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL FORECASTS AFTER TAU 48 WITH SEVERAL TRACKERS MOVING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL MOVING WESTWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//