WTPS32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 158.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 158.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.3S 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.6S 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.4S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.2S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 22.5S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 22.4S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 158.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS EXPANSIVE FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD AND RAGGED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 250530Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE EAST UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS RAPID DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK ORGANIZATION AND POORLY-DEFINED LLC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//