WTPS32 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 158.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 158.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.8S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.2S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.9S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.1S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 158.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK AND EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 0734Z SSMIS 36GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.2 TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. TC 17P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE EAST UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE WEAK ORGANIZATION AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//