WTPS31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 178.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 178.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.5S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.4S 179.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.3S 178.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.8S 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 18P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE 18P TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM STARTING BY TAU 12 AND BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//