WTPS31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310221ZMAR2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.9S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.5S 179.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.8S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.4S 177.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.7S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 311018Z INDICATES THAT TC 18P HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. TC 18P IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUECE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF TC 18P, STEERING IT ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. TC 18P IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, BUT TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 310230)//