WTPS31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 170.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 170.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.3S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.4S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.4S 178.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.8S 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 35.7S 169.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 171.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 081902Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION, TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF FIJI BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 WITH LAND INTERACTION SLIGHTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, NEAR TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 080200).//