WTPS31 PGTW 090800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 172.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.4S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.9S 177.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 29.0S 173.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 38 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 43.3S 166.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 173.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS COALESCED AND WRAPPED INTO AN OBSCURED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED DOWNSTREAM FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 090315Z SSMI 37 GHZ PASS AND JUST SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN OVERSHOOTING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE 090600Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//