WTPS31 PGTW 091400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.0S 176.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.5S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 25.5S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.2S 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 174.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A NEWLY-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 091106Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//