WTIO30 FMEE 231316



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20172018

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  8  (FAKIR)



2.A POSITION 2018/04/23 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 52.9 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/04/24 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/04/24 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/04/25 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/04/25 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/04/26 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW

72H: 2018/04/26 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=3.0+



OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH A CURVED BAND

WITH VERY COLD SUMMITS. CURVATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY INCREASED CLOSE

TO THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA AS IN 1122Z SSMI CONFIRM ALSO THE

DEEPENING, WITH APPARENTLY AN EYE IN 37GHZ. GIVEN THAT DATA, SYSTEM

WAS NAMED FAKIR BY MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 11Z.



FAKIR KEEPS ON MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE

AT EAST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AT WEST. FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE

FROM THE WEST. THE LOW MAY THEN MOVE NORTH-EASTWARD. NUMERICAL

GUIDANCE IS IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF THIS

SCENARIO. UNCERTAINTY IS MORE IMPORTANT AT LONG RANGE WITH

DIFFERENCES IN THE SLOWING DOWN AMONG THE GUIDANCE.



FAKIR INTENSIFIED RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST HOURS, BENEFITING FROM

AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ITS SMALL SIZE

ALSO HELPED IN THIS RHYTHM. HOWEVER THE CONDUCIVE PERIOD FOR

DEEPENING IS COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER

DYNAMISM FROM THE WEST, THE SHEAR WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND

INDUCE A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE INNER CORE. TOMORROW, IN A MORE

BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE TEMPORARILY SOME TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, OVER COOLER WATER, STILL

UNDERGOING A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS

LIKELY TO FILL UP.



FAKIR IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, IN THE NEXT HOURS.

INHABITANTS ARE THUS, INVITED TO FOLLOW REGULARLY THE UPDATES ON THIS

SYSTEM.=