WTIO30 FMEE 231818



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  8  (FAKIR)



2.A POSITION 2018/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 53.8 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE

DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/04/24 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/04/24 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/04/25 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/04/25 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/04/26 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

72H: 2018/04/26 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=3.5



THE PREVIOUS CLOUD PATTERN IN CURVED BAND TENDS PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS

A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH HOWEVER A LOCATION OF THE CENTER THAT REMAINS

VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INFRARED IMAGES ALLOW TO NOTICE

THAT CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.

THE 1727UTC ASCAT SWATH DOES NOT ALLOW A PRECISE LOCATION OF FAKIR

CENTER BUT SUGGESTS A COMPACT STRUCTURE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS

WHICH ARE INCREASED BY THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK

ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50KT AND FAKIR IS NOW

CLASSIFIED IN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.



THE TRACK OF FAKIR REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY THE SAME WITH RAPID MOVEMENT

SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, BETWEEN A RIDGE AT EAST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AT

WEST. THE LATEST LOCALIZATION OF THE CENTER OBTAINED BY THE MICROWAVE

IMAGES LEAVE A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE INITIAL TRACK, LOCATED THE

FORECASTED TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REUNION ISLAND. FROM WEDNESDAY

AND THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A

NEW RIDGE FROM THE WEST. FAKIR MAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST MARKING

THE BEGINNING OF THE SYSTEM FILLING. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE,

HOWEVER, IN LESS-GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SLOWING DOWN AT LONG RANGE.



FAKIR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN THE LAST HOURS, BENEFITING FROM

EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE

FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION HAS BOUND TO END WITH THE

ACTION OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR BEFORE THE TALWEG. A POSSIBLE

ACCELERATION OF THE TRACK COULD ALLOW FAKIR TO RESIST LONGER TO THE

WINDSHEAR AND THUS TO MAINTAIN FOR A LONGER ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY

CLOSE DIRECTLY FROM THE REUNION ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. HOWEVER, UPPER

LEVEL DYNAMISM WILL EVEN MAKE EFFECT AND DURING WEDNESDAY, IN AN MORE

BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE SOME TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS. MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND ALWAYS UNDER A STRONG

NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FILL UP ON

THURSDAY.



FAKIR IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MASCARENE ISLANDS OF TONIGHT IN THE TERM OF

RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE, THE WINDS COULD BE STRONGER THAN INITIALLY

EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF STRONGER STRENGTHENING TO THE UPPER LEVEL

DYNAMICS. INHABITANTS ARE THUS, INVITED TO FOLLOW REGULARLY THE

UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.=