WTIO30 FMEE 240018 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20172018 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 55.1 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 22 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 70 48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/04/24 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/04/25 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2018/04/25 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/04/26 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW 60H: 2018/04/26 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW 72H: 2018/04/27 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0 SINCE 2000UTC, THE CENTER OF FAKIR IS VISIBLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE OF THE REUNION ISLAND AND ALLOW TO CONFIRM THE ACCELERATION TAKEN BY THE METERORE IN THE LAST HOURS. AFTER A PASSAGE INTO CDO CONFIGURATION, FAKIR EVOLVE TOWARDS A SHEARED CONFIGURATION WITH A CONVECTION THAT WEAKEN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM AND A CENTER LOCATES IN LIMIT SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ORIENTATION OF FAKIR'S TRACK REMAINS SAME UNTIL WEDNESDAY BUT HAS ACCELERATED WITH RAPID MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT TRACK CONFIRMS A PASSAGE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REUNION ISLAND, MAKING THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND THE REUNION ISLAND. THEN THE RECENT ACCELERATION CHANGES THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE TURNING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SYSTEM THAT EVOLVES FASTER EASTWARDS ALWAYS BLOCKED TO THE SOUTH BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE FROM THE WEST. IN CONNECTION WITH THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT, FAKIR RESISTS LONGER TO WINDSHEAR AND MAINTAINS FOR A LONGER ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY CLOSER DIRECTLY FROM REUNION ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMISM WILL EVEN MAKE EFFECT AND DURING WEDNESDAY, IN AN MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND ALWAYS UNDER A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FILL UP ON THURSDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE MASCARENE ISLANDS OF THE MASCAREIGNES CONTINUES FOR THE DAY OF TUESDAY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. FURTHER, THE WINDS REMAINS STRONGER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF STRONGER STRENGTHENING TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. INHABITANTS ARE THUS, INVITED TO FOLLOW REGULARLY THE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.=