WTIO30 FMEE 240656 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20172018 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 23 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SW: 190 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/04/24 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/04/25 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/04/25 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/04/26 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/04/26 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW 72H: 2018/04/27 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+ THE CENTER OF FAKIR HAS PASSED AT 05 UTC ABOUT 20 KM EAST OF PITON ST-ROSE ON THE EASTERN COAST OF LA REUNION. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAS PASSED VERY NEAR THE EASTERN COAST WHERE AN UNOFFICIAL STATION HAS REPORTED A 981 HPA NEAR THE RMW. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRATED ACCORDINGLY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ESTIMATED LOCATED ON THE LEFT OF THE TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGE WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF FAKIR EXCEPTED A MORE FASTER TRACK TO TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FAST MOTION: THE RECENT ACCELERATION CHANGES THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE TURNING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SYSTEM THAT EVOLVES FASTER EASTWARDS ALWAYS BLOCKED TO THE SOUTH BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE FROM THE WEST. IN CONNECTION WITH THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT, FAKIR RESISTS LONGER TO WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE EYE PATTERN IS LOOSING DEFINITION AND THE CURRENT STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASINGLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMISM WILL EVEN MAKE EFFECT AND DURING WEDNESDAY, IN A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND ALWAYS UNDER A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FILL UP ON THURSDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCEREIGNES ISLAND AND SPECIALLY LA REUNION SHOULD IMPROVE FASTLY LATER TODAY.=