WTIO30 FMEE 241303



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  8  (FAKIR)



2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 57.2 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN

DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/04/25 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2018/04/25 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2018/04/26 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2018/04/26 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2018/04/27 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.5 CI=4.0+



UNDER THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY

CONSTRAINT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FAKIR HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTER

LOCATED ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS THAT IS

INCREASINGLY BECOMING ILL DEFINED. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE

JUSTIFY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE MAX WINDS (LOWER WINDS INERTIA).



IN AN INCREASING UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SST, THE

SYSTEM SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER UNFAVOURABLE FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL

DEEPENING AND FAKIR IS EXPECTED TO FILL-UP AS IT WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS

AND THEN NORTH-EASTWARDS LATER THIS WEEK ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF

THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. SOME SPREAD EXIST ON THIS TRACK OF THE END OF

LIFE OF FAKIR.=