WTIO30 FMEE 241821



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  8  (FAKIR)



2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 59.1 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE

DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/04/25 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2018/04/25 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2018/04/26 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2018/04/26 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2018/04/27 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0- CI=3.5



THE POWERFUL NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT (ESTIMATED AT 45KT BY THE

CIMSS) CONTINUES TO AFFECT FAKIR. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALL

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FAKIR

IS NOW IN A VERY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER SEEMS TO APPEAR ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES IN THE NORTH-WEST OF

THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS LOCATION IS COHERENT WITH THE

STRUCTURE DISPLAYED ON 1629Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MW IMAGE.



IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SST SOUTH

OF 24S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT HOURS. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

TO WEAKEN AS NO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN EXTRATROPICAL

DEEPENING.



FAKIR IS THUS EXPECTED TO FILL-UP AS IT WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS AND THEN

NORTH-EASTWARDS LATER THIS WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF

THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEFORE DISAPPEARING. SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD

EXIST ON THE END OF THIS TRACK FORECAST, THE FINAL NORTHWARD TURN

BEING STILL UNCERTAIN.=