WTXS31 PGTW 291500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 13.9S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.0S 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.3S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 17.7S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.5S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.0S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 85.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (FLAMBOYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH COOLING TOPS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 291221Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T3.5 (65 TO 55 KNOTS), ALONG WITH A RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (ABOUT 10 KNOTS), SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY UNDER THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT TAU 12. AS TC 21S BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTH, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS AT TAU 96. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN JUST FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, AND THEN THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MODEL SPREAD, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//