WTIO31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.4N 45.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.9N 44.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 11.2N 43.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 49.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 1745Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 BASED ON CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE. TC 01A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO TURN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT IS STEERED BY A COMBINATION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE REMAINING STEADY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE FORECAST INTENSITY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE TRACK AND MINOR DEVIATIONS COULD INCREASE LAND INTERACTION AND RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, BUT SMALL DEVIATIONS IN TRACK COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES. BASED ON HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//