WTIO31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 48.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 48.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.9N 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.5N 47.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.0N 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.5N 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 10.5N 42.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 48.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 170736Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING VERY HIGH, PERSISTENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SUPPORTIVE POLEWARD UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LIMITED INFLOW PATTERN RESULTING FROM THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL PREVENT EXTENSIVE INTENSIFICATION. AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE, DUE TO THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO LAND, SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//