WTIO31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 48.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 48.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.5N 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.1N 46.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.7N 45.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 11.2N 44.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 10.2N 42.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 47.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS, AT TIMES, SHOWN A SMALL DIMPLE FEATURE. THE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION IS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 170913Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE RECENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENISTY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH AN ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF VERY WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF ADEN. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC SAGAR IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//