WTIO31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 47.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 47.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.0N 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.5N 45.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.0N 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.6N 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 46.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED BUT BANDING FEATURES AND A 171739Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION. INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) BASED ON A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AND A 171739Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOTS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (31+ CELSIUS), HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING TOPOGRAPHY IS REDUCING AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN INTENSIFICATION. TC 01A IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND THE SURROUNDING TOPOGRAPHY CHANNELING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE GULF OF ADEN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING, SLOWING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE TOPOGRAPHIC STEERING INFLUENCE IS INFLUENCED BY LAND TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING DOWN THE GULF OF ADEN, THE INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF THE SURROUNDING LAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 12 AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48. OF NOTE, DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK WILL LIKELY INCREASE LAND INTERACTION AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE MORE QUICKLY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//