WTIO31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 45.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 45.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.1N 44.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 10.7N 44.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 10.3N 43.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 9.8N 42.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 45.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA EVIDENT IN AN 181136Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY A MSI SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC SAGAR CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN 50 KNOT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AS TC 01A APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE GULF OF ADEN, LAND INTERACTION COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC SAGAR IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SSE OF DJIBOUTI AFTER TAU 24. ONCE OVER LAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//