WTIO31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 45.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 45.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 10.9N 44.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.4N 43.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 9.9N 43.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 45.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION, BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS SUPPORTED BY AN 181801Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS (T3.0) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 55 KNOT WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC SAGAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//