WTIO31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 57.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 57.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 10.5N 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 11.6N 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.9N 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.0N 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.9N 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1N 53.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.1N 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 57.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 220530Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND HEDGED ABOVE A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 31 TO 32 DEGREE CELSIUS. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE INTENSIFYING. BY TAU 48 TC 02A WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKENING LOCATED BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL STR TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02A AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSES. TC 02A WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL TC 02A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS TO THE EAST (NVGM, COTI, AND AFUI). THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY, FAVORING HWRF. THEREFORE, OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//