WTIO31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 56.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 56.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.4N 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 12.4N 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.4N 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.8N 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.1N 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.4N 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.5N 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 56.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME DEEPER AND MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 221134Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC AND DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 220918Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 31 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE INTENSIFYING. AFTER TAU 48 TC 02A WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKENING LOCATED BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL STR TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02A AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSES. TC 02A WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL TC 02A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NAVGM AND AFUI OUTLIERS TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY FORECAST. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//