WTIO31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 56.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 11.7N 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.7N 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.9N 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.7N 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0N 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.6N 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 18.6N 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 56.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 221806Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE OVERALL FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31-32 CELSIUS). THROUGH TAU 72, TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 02A WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE CYLCONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GALWEM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE EAST WHILE NAVGEM IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST (IN LATER TAUS) OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD PRESENTED BY THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//