WTIO31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 56.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 56.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 11.3N 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 11.9N 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 12.5N 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 13.7N 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.1N 53.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 17.6N 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.2N 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 55.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SIGNATURE WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 230012Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 89 GHZ BAND, AND A SOMEWHAT LESS WELL DEFINED EYE IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST TILT WITH HEIGHT EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO LIGHT EASTERLY VWS OVER THE SYSTEM. STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.4 (54 KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT POLEWARD OUTLFOW REMAINS ROBUST, WHILE EQUATORWARD FLOW HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WESTWARD CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. VWS IN THE AREA IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) THOUGH BEING OFFSET BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE VERY WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL. THE STR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FROM WESTERN INDIA INTO WESTERN OMAN LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, LEADING TO A SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION AND A TURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC MEKUNU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, PASSING JUST EAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 02A TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN/OMAN BORDER REGION JUST AFTER TAU 72. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VWS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY TAU 48, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FLATLINE THROUGH TAU 72 AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES NEAR THE COAST AND VWS INCREASES NEAR THE COASTLINE. THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST TAUS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION AND IS INDICATING A RAPID TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH ONLY GFS AND COAMPS INDICATING A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK LIES WELL WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 BUT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS FROM TAU 72 TO 120. IN VIEW OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//