WTIO31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 56.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 56.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.2N 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.2N 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.1N 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.1N 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.9N 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.3N 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.0N 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 56.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT AND DEEP CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02A. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT TC MEKUNU HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 230536Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE RECENT EYE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TC 02A IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN VERY WARM (31-32 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 02A TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR JUST WEST OF SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 WITH WINDS NEAR 80 KNOTS. BY TAU 72 THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE TO 75 KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. INTENSITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TAU 120 AS TC 02A BEGINS TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD OF 215 NM AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//