WTIO31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 56.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 56.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.1N 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.1N 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.1N 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.1N 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.6N 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.9N 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 55.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT BANDING CONVECTION AROUND TC 02A WHICH IS NO LONGER EXHIBITING AN EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 231200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS TC 02A HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 230949Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 66 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TC 02A IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN VERY WARM (31-32 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02A WILL CONTINUE TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 02A TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES LAND. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR JUST WEST OF SALALAH, OMAN NEAR TAU 60 WITH WINDS NEAR 80 KNOTS. BY TAU 72 THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE TO 55 KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BY TAU 96 TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS THE INTENSITY DECREASES TO 30 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL A LARGE MODEL SPREAD OF 110 NM AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//