WTIO31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 55.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 55.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.7N 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.6N 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.6N 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.4N 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.6N 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 55.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED EYE WITH RAPIDLY-CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. THE 240446Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A SLIGHT TILT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL (89GHZ) MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE LOCATED ABOUT 17NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL (36GHZ) MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS HEDGED CLOSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS A 240330Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 36, TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE STEADILY AND TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//