WTIO31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 55.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 55.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.3N 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.2N 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.1N 53.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.8N 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.0N 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241132Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. EIR, HOWEVER, DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND LOSS OF AN EYE FEATURE, AND IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS TC 02A TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//